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Falcs96
Joined: Jan 21, 2015
Posts: 595
Chenengo won the recent head to head against Horseheads. You have to consider that. Otherwise, I think you did a good job. I wouldnt have Fulton at 4 though.


legattack
Joined: Jan 18, 2018
Posts: 38
I like it good job


jessefeffer
Joined: Jan 30, 2008
Posts: 176
Falcs96 wrote:
Chenengo won the recent head to head against Horseheads. You have to consider that. Otherwise, I think you did a good job. I wouldnt have Fulton at 4 though.


This was not arbitrary, per se. These are calculations using some intuitive. There is nothing more certain than a -6 forfeit in a lineup. My method is ignorant of facts like injuries, academic ineligibity etc. because I just went down each roster and put the best 99-285 lineup I could see using RankWrestlers. I used my own algorithm to convert their rating to a score. A coach submitting his team's roster for WC or seeding purposes is not ignorant of the status his lineup and I think it would be blindly fair to all.

Hilton has a handful of guys with a 99+ rating which converts to a score of almost six. A forfeited weight class is -6. It is weighted toward the extremes and guys in the middle do not add or subtract as much. I'd call it a mesaure of how strong a roster a team has.

It is predictive in a manner without defining matchups, which we know mean alot. Falconer's strength of roster scored 38 to Olean's 16. I'd say the matches tomorrow will be 7 to 4 Falconer with 4 toss ups. Olean will have 4 bonus point losses in the first five classes where Olean gives 3 or 4 forfeits. I'd say the final score will be about 47 to 25, give or take.


mikef272002
Joined: Dec 9, 2009
Posts: 211
jessefeffer wrote:
Falcs96 wrote:
Chenengo won the recent head to head against Horseheads. You have to consider that. Otherwise, I think you did a good job. I wouldnt have Fulton at 4 though.


This was not arbitrary, per se. These are calculations using some intuitive. There is nothing more certain than a -6 forfeit in a lineup. My method is ignorant of facts like injuries, academic ineligibity etc. because I just went down each roster and put the best 99-285 lineup I could see using RankWrestlers. I used my own algorithm to convert their rating to a score. A coach submitting his team's roster for WC or seeding purposes is not ignorant of the status his lineup and I think it would be blindly fair to all.

Hilton has a handful of guys with a 99+ rating which converts to a score of almost six. A forfeited weight class is -6. It is weighted toward the extremes and guys in the middle do not add or subtract as much. I'd call it a mesaure of how strong a roster a team has.

It is predictive in a manner without defining matchups, which we know mean alot. Falconer's strength of roster scored 38 to Olean's 16. I'd say the matches tomorrow will be 7 to 4 Falconer with 4 toss ups. Olean will have 4 bonus point losses in the first five classes where Olean gives 3 or 4 forfeits. I'd say the final score will be about 47 to 25, give or take.


Well seeing as the final score was 47-30, Falconer, I'd say your math was pretty damn good. There were a couple matches that could of went either way (152 and 170), making your point very strong. no one can ever predict and exact score, but damn you were as close as anyone can get based on your "point system". I was curious how close you'd be, and I seen what you seen, I had the score around the same as you.


Oldskool
Joined: Feb 1, 2004
Posts: 1172
Stevo not even wrestling???


tampacuse
Joined: Nov 2, 2011
Posts: 45
For those of you on this thread that thought Massapequa was hands down better and solid from top to bottom didn't know what you where talking about. Hilton got Upset at (285) and 99. Those where 2 weighs MOST thought Hilton would win and of they did they would have WON. Also I watch 3 kids from Massapequa stall the entire match to try and keep Hilton from bonus points. I think of those 2 teams wrestle 5 time Hilton wins 3/4 put off 5


Falcs96
Joined: Jan 21, 2015
Posts: 595
Mass had an injured starter missing at 138, so that cost them some versatility. They would rather have kept Blando at 132. Would not have been their choice to bump him up, but that's the way it goes.

The match may have seemed close, but I never felt like Massapequa was in trouble because I knew they were ending it with two of their top wrestlers. The dual was really over after 145. Hilton needed a pin there to have even a slight chance of winning it.
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